Information gain as a score for probabilistic forecasts
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Scoring Probability Forecasts for Point Processes: the Entropy Score and Information Gain
The entropy score of an observed outcome that has been given a probability forecast p is defined to be −logp. If p is derived from a probability model and there is a background model for which the same outcome has probability π , then the log ratio log(p/π) is the probability gain, and its expected value the information gain, for that outcome. Such concepts are closely related to the likelihood...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Meteorological Applications
سال: 2011
ISSN: 1350-4827
DOI: 10.1002/met.188